Daily Archives: December 17, 2006

Web 2.0 Second Wave

Note: This blog is a stream of though produced while I was waiting for a bus. Supporting links for my poorly crafted arguments will be added later.
A lot of people are suggesting that the Web 2.0 bubble is going to burst, others are even suggesting that it already has, its just that we haven’t noticed yet.
Personally I think we are looking at some good old fashioned rationalisation – after all, how many social video sharing sites do you need? Listen – it is going to play out like this, there are going to be some high profile buy outs (Google/YouTube) followed by some starvation. Other video sites will survive, especially those with a strong financial backing and which form part of a larger Internet-enabled strategy (MSN Soapbox).
The effect of this rationalisation (and it will happen across all of the application types) is that more funding will become available for the second wave of Web 2.0 sites/services (please don’t call it Web 3.0). The second wave of sites/services will be more focused on solving discrete business or personal problems rather than providing infrastructure services and this will create an eco-system where the successful second wave sites consume the services of the infrastructure sites (photos, video, etc) rather than rolling their own. It’s all about leverage.
Infrastructure sites will continue to evolve if they want a slice of the action. You can’t continue to be advertising funded whenyou are consumed as an API by another commercial system (mashup) so there needs to be some kind of micropayments solution.
Of course we have numerous examples of these second wave sites and services already but I suspect a few of them are in commercialisation limbo because they don’t know how their backend infrastructure providers are going to charge them.=


Blog Clippings #5

This one has been a long time coming so it is long, but hopefully I’ve found some interesting stuff:

  • I always start by clipping with the anti-Microsoft blogs (well, not so much anti, but more just-not-pro-microsoft). Anyway, on Friday I found this post on the Graceful Flavor blog that really resonated with me. The subject was the madness of marketing around enterprise software. If you read down some of the sample collateral you get the feel for the level of crap that gets produced to justify a piece of software. In my opinion software that is _needed_ doesn’t need any explaination because the customers will queue up to buy it. One of the things that strikes me about the good examples he used (37signals, Apple and WordPress) is that even if you decide not to buy – you walk away with the respect for the finish that has been put on the product.
  • An interesting link on the hardware section of Slashdot about a family that drove an RV across the US on about $47 dollars worth of diesel fuel by preferring to use waste grease from fast food stores.
  • It looks like triple head displays are getting more popular, and Jeff Atwood has posted up two articles about it. I like the idea of having a space at home that I can walk in, plug in my computer and have the entire wall come alive as a high resolution display.
  • Dave Lemphers reports back on the Robot Olympiad held on the Gold Coast. One interesting link in his post was to the Robotics Genome projects. Actually I’ve got this interesting theory about producing UAV systems that involves teaching a robot how to fly – you would drop it out of the sky (initially in a simulation environment) with one simple reflex, if it is falling it doesn’t “feel good” and it starts randomly firing its systems. I figure that the altimeter would provide the right feedback mechanism for a neural net. Eventually it might find the right pathways to support flight (even if it was a bad ride).
  • An awesome ATARI laptop (thats right – a laptop) modification via Engadget.
  • I still can’t crack level four for the Zune competition (note: I won’t give you the answers I have got to date).
  • Andrew Matthews links to an article about how the University of Texas at Dallas is producing nanotube muscles that are 100 times stronger than human muscles. Combine this with what the UoW folks are doing with mind control robots and we are on the verge of an exciting new era.
  • It looks like the WPF3D has managed to figure out how to make 2D objects inside 3D scenes able to be interacted with. Wow!
  • Dave Lemphers with an interesting post again, this time he is slapping the Web 2.0 space with a reality check about what their longer term intentions are. I agree with a lot of what he says, although I think that one valid business strategy for a Web 2.0 business is selling up to another technology company. Sometimes you just need to “make meaning” by proving that something is possible then hand it over to a more experienced hand to take it to the masses – it just depends on whether you just want to make money, or whether you actually want your idea to succeed.
  • An interesting article on APC by Ashton Mills about how the Linux Kernel is getting some genetic algorithm treatment to provide automatic tuning. Self optimising software is not new, in fact products like SQL Server have been doing it for years, however this might be the first time it has been applied this deep down in the system. I wonder how this plays out on virtualised hardware.
  • I want one of these.
  • When Bill Gates says go down to the record store to buy your music and avoid DRM because it has problems then you really have to wonder how much the tech industry is starting to get fed up of the record and film industries. In Australia and apparently in New Zealand too, it looks like the practice for format shifting is going to be legal so it could be sound advice. Unfortunately I think that the behaviour of the recording industry is the last dying throws of a pre-Internet industry that only saw a challenge rather than an opportunity with the birth of the emergence of the Internet.
  • Keyvan Nayyeri posts up a good read on how events work in Windows Presentation Foundation.

Phew! There was more – but I had to rule a line under it.